POLICY EXPRESS · PE-FSTB-158 · Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau
Fiscal Sustainability and the Medium-Term Outlook
The Budget shows a HK$22.1 billion surplus, but it rests on HK$127.8 billion of non-tax items while debt climbs towards 19.9% of GDP.
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2 pages · English and 繁體中文 · Built on the 1134211 Framework · Facts as at 25 October 2026
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The tension and our thesis
The tension
The Budget shows a surplus for 2026-27, yet it is assembled from market gains and one-time transfers, while borrowing and debt keep rising.
Our thesis
Show what recurs, restrain what the Government controls, and pace borrowing to the revenue that actually returns.
Three policy problems this brief examines
- 01The balance leans on non-tax items
- 02Restraint is real but narrow
- 03Borrowing and land carry the capital gap
Each problem is developed in three layers: the fact, why it persists, and the consequence for the system.
Three options compared
A · Deeper cuts first: extend the 2% cut beyond 2027-28 and delete more posts.
B · Revenue first: a fees and charges review on user-pays principles.
C · Borrow and wait: raise bond issuance and rely on land recovery.
The scored comparison, the justified recommendation with its phased measures, the implementation challenges, the stakeholder assessment and the success metrics are in the full brief.
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Both pages, in English and Traditional Chinese: the introduction and background, key figures, the three policy problems, the scored options, the recommendation with its phased measures, the implementation challenges, the stakeholder assessment and the conclusion.
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Facts and figures are checked against primary sources where we could retrieve them. † marks press-only figures. (J) marks IRB judgements. Facts as at 25 Oct 2026.
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