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POLICY EXPRESS · PE-FHB-165 · Food and Health Bureau

Healthcare Manpower and the Third Medical School

The doctor shortfall is projected to peak around 2030, yet the third medical school’s first cohort starts in 2028 and imports so far add few.

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2 pages · English and 繁體中文 · Built on the 1134211 Framework · Facts as at 25 October 2026

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PE-HB-175: Shortening the Wait for Public Rental HousingPE-EDB-147: Right-Sizing the School System for a Shrinking CohortPE-CEDB-130: Supporting Mainland Enterprises to Go GlobalPE-CMAB-120: Aligning Rules and Mechanisms across the Greater Bay AreaPE-CSB-125: Civil Service Size, Productivity and Establishment Control

The tension and our thesis

The tension

Hong Kong needs more doctors and nurses now, yet the projected doctor shortfall peaks around 2030 while the new medical school’s first graduates arrive after 2032 and non-local recruitment adds only a trickle.

Our thesis

Publish the numbers, speed the import route that works, and make the training pipeline ready on time.

Three policy problems this brief examines

  1. 01The shortfall persists through the 2020s
  2. 02Imports add little so far
  3. 03The pipeline waits on law and buildings

Each problem is developed in three layers: the fact, why it persists, and the consequence for the system.

Three options compared

A

A · Train more locally: raise medical and nursing places again.

B

B · Import faster: widen special registration and recognise more overseas training.

C

C · Retain first: pay and workload measures for HA staff.

The scored comparison, the justified recommendation with its phased measures, the implementation challenges, the stakeholder assessment and the success metrics are in the full brief.

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Facts and figures are checked against primary sources where we could retrieve them. † marks press-only figures. (J) marks IRB judgements. Facts as at 25 Oct 2026.

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